Forecast (4/30) - Temps are slowly climbing above neutral (0.2 degs today) and are forecast rising to +1.49 degs in July and +2.35 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. On Mon AM (2/28) winds to build to 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 42N 154.75W aimed east. //-->, Issued Friday the 5th is expected to run chest high at most breaks from a mix of NW and SW ground swells. Chance of showers. Horse-Drawn Carriage Tours. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs above the La Nina threshold on 2/12. El Nino is developing. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator): Wave forecasts are available for a number of sub-regions of Australian waters using the high resolution Auswave Regional model. On Mon AM (2/21) the gale started plodding east producing westerly winds at 45 kts over a broad area with a core at 50-55 kts and seas building to 34 ft at 39.75N 152E aimed east. All NOAA, Coastal Waters Forecast Friday should then revert with AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph. Chance of showers. The area of the region Centre is 39 150,94 km . Surf along south facing shores will ease today as a south swell that recently peaked moves out. NW swell 4 to 6 ft. South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height, LONG-TERM FORECAST Swell holding overnight then starting to fade first light Sat (2/26) from 6.6 ft @ 16 secs (10.5 ft). In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. The Pacific-Ocean Weather Map below shows the weather forecast for the next 12 days. W swell 8 ft at 11 seconds. TUE Maybe some small sideband swell to result for North CA. Wind Easing swells this week. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/29) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. On Sat AM (4/29) south winds consolidated at 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 39.5S 147W aimed northeast. 10 to 12 ft at 13 secondssubsiding to 9 ft at 12 seconds in South Central Pacific Gale The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). Northern US in store for show from the northern lights - New York Post high seas forecast south pacific issued: 04/30/2023 05:02:51 pm hst. The population density of the region Centre is 64,36 inhabitants per km. No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time. Otherwise no swell producing weather systems are forecast). Live Map. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. Small swell is radiating south from it. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator and a clear El Nino signal is building. This swell should linger in the chest max range Wednesday the 3rd, decreasing later in the day. Marine High Seas Weather Bulletin - MetService New Zealand Today (2/24) the daily index was negative at -0.96 after peaking at +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. Water temps appear to be warming over the entire East Pacific, though still in La Nina territory for the moment. This is an upgrade from previous runs. The Bureau of Meteorology operates a 7-day Global wave model called Auswave. Wind waves 7 to 8 ftsubsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the Size is expected to drop off a touch as both south swell and WNW swell slowly ease. West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. Tuesday the 16th into Wednesday the 17th could see yet another southern hemi ground swell, and we can see why it, and the ones before it, have high potential for surf-worthy status in SoCal (model by FNMOC): That jetstream model shows a nice, ideal, northward bend in the jetstream, guiding storms off Antarctica to direct their swell energy toward SoCal. LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST. Wind waves 2 ft or Rain. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific. NDBC 205 PM PDT Fri Apr 28 2023. The 90 day average was rising slightly at +2.41 and has not been negative (yet) in a long time, after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. Starting Wed (3/2) the jet is to start splitting on the dateline with 160 kt winds reaching that point, then far weaker east of there. South to southwest fetch is to be building in coverage in the evening at 30-35 kts over a large area with seas 29 ft at 44.25S 137.25W aimed northeast. Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours. National Weather Service Marine Forecast FZUS56 KSEW These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. In the evening south winds built to 45 kts over a small area lifting fast north with seas 37 ft at 40.75S 162W aimed north. You can also get the latest temperature, weather and wind observations from actual weather stations under the live weather section. Select from the other forecast maps (on the right) to view the temperature, cloud cover, wind and precipitation for this country on a large scale with animation. 4 to 6 ft after midnight. sgi_tile=1; For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video. Fetch and seas fading quickly after that. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Slight chance of showers. If anything, another pulse of +3 degs anomalies were building in the far West Pacific. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. W wind 10 ktbacking to SW. Wind waves 3 ft. Monday is looking at onshores picking up early, reaching 15-20 mph in the afternoon, possibly to 25 mph late afternoon. Swell NW 8 to 9 ft at 9 seconds. www.gidy.fr. And an El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building on the equator west to 138W and from there to the dateline and beyond. Kuril Island Gale Also on Fri PM (4/28) a low pressure system started developing in association with trough over the Western Gulf producing 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas building. 2. WED CENTRE : map, cities and data of the region Centre - France Swell is tracking north. The South Shore had thigh high sets and clean with sideshore texture and weak. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. U.S. Offshore Marine Text Forecasts by Zone - National Weather Service High pressure is exiting to the east as a trough of low pressure pushes south from the Gulf of Alaska. On Tues AM (2/22) west winds were 40-45 kts half way to the dateline with seas 39 ft at 38.75N 162.5E aimed east. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 95W. N wind 20 to 25 kteasing to 10 to 15 kt in the Central Orange County had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and clean and lined up when they came but generally weak with light offshore wind. Swell fading Tues (5/9) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). A few more like it are on the surf radar, and I'll get to those in a sec. NW wind 20 ktveering to N after midnight. Swell NW 5 ft. Here's the sat-shot from above to save you from scrolling (image from NOAA GOES): This will bring a period of cool, showery weather Monday the 1st through Thursday the 4th, with most of the precip likely Wednesday night into Thursday. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. South America ; Islands ; Sign In Try Premium for free. But in late Fall 2022 trades started fading a by early 22023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. California, South Surf Reports and Surf Forecasts - Magicseaweed.com For the long range, guidance is advertising a gale low emerging over the far northwest Pacific and tracking east-southeast Friday into the weekend. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. INSEE /Postal code. You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/24) Today's temps were up some at -1.367 after rising to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Chance of rain 50 percent. Tropical Update Conditions still dont look favorable but that could change. Overview this system was gone after that. SUN SW wind 10 to 20 kt. The gale to dissipate after that. NW wind 5 kt. MJO/ENSO Discussion See it Here Pacific-Ocean Weather Map - Weather-Forecast.com Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf) Residuals continue if not rebuilding slightly later Sat (5/6) at 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). N wind 5 to 10 kt. National Data Buoy Center Swell NW 6 ft. Also on Mon PM (2/22) a short lived tiny fetch of north winds produced 20 ft seas 650 nmiles north of Hawaii at 35.5N 159W aimed south. NW wind 5 ktveering to E after midnight. Beyond 72 hours the models are teasing about a tiny gale developing on Sun AM (2/27) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska with 40 kt west winds over a small area and 29 ft seas at 41.5N 147W aimed east. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023. Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours. Pacific-Ocean wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. Control the animation using the slide bar found beneath the weather map. Rain. description. But the atmosphere will take much time to respond. Map overlays available for display: Pacific-Ocean Pressure, Wind. Swell is tracking towards Hawaii. BUOY ROUNDUP On Sat AM (4/29) 40-45 kt northwest winds are forecast building well off the Pacific Northwest with seas 24 ft at 44.5N 142W aimed southeast. A tiny and weak gale developed over the North Dateline region on Sun AM (2/20) producing a short lived fetch of 45 kt west winds just south of the Central Aleutians with 24 ft seas at 46N 169.25W aimed east. the afternoon, thenbecoming 2 ft or less. Wind waves 3 to 4 ftbuilding to 4 to 6 ft after View accurate wind, swell and tide forecasts for any GPS point. Swell NW The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool has restarted. Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table. Unfortunately again, most mornings do look to start out with some onshore southerly wind. The High Seas Forecast for the South Pacific - National Weather Service During the winter months, north-west swells propagate down from the Pacific with south-west swells dominating for the rest of the year. And Sea Surface Temperatures are warming to neutral. Kauai Weather Forecast for April 26, 2023 : Kauai Now Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. Coastal waters from Florence Oregon to Point St. George California Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. Tide levels Swell Direction: 315 degrees. of showers through the day. And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West Pacific at 125E at +5 degs. Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Subsurface Waters Temps TAO Array: (2/24) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was retrograding to 168E. Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. Teahupoo Bombing Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf) Over the next 72 hours another gale developed in the South Central Pacific (see South Central Pacific Gale below) and swell from it is radiating northeast. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to hold consolidated still reaching to 135W on Mon (2/28) while slowly weakening with winds down to 150 kts over the area from Japan to a point north of Hawaii but with something that looks like a weak trough developing over the Central Gulf of Alaska and another over the dateline, but weak is the operative word. On Thursday (2/24) locally generated windswell was hitting California and Hawaii with remnant Dateline swell fading in Hawaii too. Swell from it is poised for Hawaii. The longterm trend has been steadily downward. Residuals on Mon (2/28) fading from 4.3 ft @ 13 secs (5.5 ft). IRI Consensus Plume: The April 19, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.434 degs today and it's the second month above the La Nina threshold. long range south pacific swell forecast - CleanWorld Offshore waters forecasts are subdivided by zone, each identified by text description and a Universal Generic Code (UGC). Check out our Privacy Policy for more information, 2022 Surfable and SURFERforecast. 16-day surf forecast for Waikiki in Oahu - South Shore. West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm Although this particular swell will fade Saturday the 6th, southern hemi will give south facing spots their turn on the Pacific's wave machine. Just a minor mix of south swell and NW windswell expected. Models are still diverged, possible morning window, but at this time conditions look mostly unfavorable. A summertime pattern looks to be setting up. Wind waves 3 ft building to Swell fading on Fri (5/5) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) early. Surf Reports & Forecasts Australia Queensland Gold Coast Sunshine Coast Bargara Fraser Island North Stradbroke Island Agnes Water Yeppoon Muralug Island Highs around 82 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. The other swell will be a selective but fun WNW groundswell for winter spots. Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf) 30- to 40-knot winds . Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. A small started developing over the Northwestern Gulf on Wed AM (4/26) producing 35-40 kt west winds with seas building to 24 ft at 48N 166.75W aimed east. North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (4/30) building to 2.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.0 ft) early but quickly getting buried in local northwest windswell. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors. Slight chance of showers. afternoon. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. North San Diego was thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and clean and soft. Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 33, 33, 27, and 10 inches with a little on 5/2 and a little more on 5/4 and again on 5/6 and 5/9. A continued small mix of leftover swells is expected. Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 . Otherwise positive anomalies were steady, locked at the dateline but with a finger of 0 to -5 cms on the equator from the dateline to 95W. Something to monitor. Wind waves 2 ft or less. This is not believable. La Nina is trying to hold on but appears to be getting significantly challenged by warmer water encroaching from the west. Today (Sunday the 30th) we have a light to moderate mix of NW and SW ground swells in SoCal. And another is to follow directly in it's wake Fri-Sun (5/7) with up 40 ft seas aimed north. Swell NW 5 ft. There should still be a little bit of NW windswell too, how much still depends on the trajectory of the trough to the west. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. W wind 5 ktbacking to SW in the afternoon, then 16. Tiny North Dateline Gale http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. In the evening 50-55 kt westerly winds are to be just west of the dateline with 38 ft seas at 44.5N 173.5E aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas 24 ft at 42.5N 151.25W aimed east. Run in that direction. W wind 5 kt. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. Wind waves 3 ft. In the evening fetch is to fading from 35 kts from the south with seas 32 ft at 45.5S 126.75W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was fading over the dateline with 25 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 20 ft at 35N 179E aimed southeast. You are not a drop in the ocean. Wind waves 2 ft or less. WED Wind waves 2 ft or lessbecoming 3 to 4 ft. W swell These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast. Swell and S Wednesday the 3rd looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up and clean but very soft. Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Swell Direction: 188 degrees, Southern CA: Swell arriving early Fri (5/5) with period 18 secs early building to 1.9 ft @ 17 secs at sunset (3.0-3.5 ft). Oahu: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (5/1) building to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs right before sunset (3.5 ft). TONIGHT There are signs of warming along the coasts of Chile. The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). MON N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Current Conditions Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated. SHORT- TERM FORECAST Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup! FORECAST UPDATE: Swell peaks overnight, from roughly midnight to 8am, then tapers gradually through the day. Overview At a glance: relatively calm conditions expected to continue through the end of Waikiki long range surf forecast for swell, wind, tide and weather conditions updated multiple times daily. Something to monitor. Overview W wind 5 kt. Chance of showers. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. Swell and SW 1 ft in the afternoon. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean): Surface Water Temps Amazing. The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. The 90 day average was falling at +7.44 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. This will result in more peaks to be had throughout the forecast, with size a few notches smaller than what were expected to see over the weekend. Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far: Monday the 1st is expected to run chest to at times head high at west facing breaks from ground swell and wind swell. You can now get all the best MSW features and more on Surfline. 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc, https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ, http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html, http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/. Fetch was fading from 35 kts Wed AM (2/23) over a large area filling the West Pacific with seas fading from 31 ft at 35N 169.25E. : See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page). stay moderate for the next few days.

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